The Numbers Tell a Clear Story
USCIS data from Fiscal Year 2025 reveals a significant shift in approval rates for both the EB-1A (Extraordinary Ability) and EB-2 NIW (National Interest Waiver) categories.
The EB-1A approval rate, which stood at approximately 70.5% in FY 2023, declined to roughly 60.6% in FY 2024. After a partial recovery to 74.9% in Q1 FY 2025 and 72.7% in Q2, the rate fell again to approximately 67% in Q3 FY 2025—the lowest level in three years.
The EB-2 NIW category has experienced an even steeper decline. After reaching nearly 80% approval in FY 2023, the rate dropped dramatically to 43.3% in FY 2024. While Q1 and Q2 of FY 2025 showed recovery to the 62–67% range, Q3 saw another decline to approximately 54%—the lowest in more than a year.
Why Are Approval Rates Declining?
Several factors are driving these trends.
- USCIS adjudicators appear to be applying closer scrutiny to the “final merits” determination in EB-1A cases. Meeting three of the ten regulatory criteria is necessary, but no longer sufficient, as officers are demanding more compelling evidence that the applicant’s overall record demonstrates sustained acclaim at the top of the field.
- For EB-2 NIW, the shift appears to center on how USCIS interprets “national interest” under the Dhanasar framework. Officers are placing greater emphasis on measurable U.S. impact and less weight on forward-looking potential or broad sector-wide influence. Fields like technology consulting and general research are facing particularly heightened scrutiny, while applicants in healthcare, STEM, and national security-adjacent fields continue to perform relatively well.
- Filing volumes have increased substantially. EB-1A petitions rose approximately 50% year-over-year in FY 2025, creating larger backlogs and potentially incentivizing USCIS to apply stricter standards. The EB-1A backlog reached 16,000 pending cases, an all-time high.
What Stelmakh & Associates Clients Should Know
While industry-wide approval rates have declined, Stelmakh & Associates continues to maintain approval rates that are significantly above the national averages for both EB-1A and EB-2 NIW.
Our firm works to maximize the chances of approval by emphasizing deep, individualized case development, strategic evidence selection, and narrative construction in an attempt to anticipate the specific points of scrutiny USCIS adjudicators are applying in the current environment.
These trends do not mean EB-1A or EB-2 NIW petitions are no longer viable. Strong cases continue to be approved. What the data shows is that the margin for error has narrowed considerably. Petitions that likely would have been approved with moderate evidence packages two years ago may now require more robust documentation, more compelling expert letters, and a more carefully constructed narrative.
Notably, the O-1 visa maintained approval rates above 90% throughout FY 2025, suggesting that USCIS continues to treat the nonimmigrant extraordinary-ability category with relative consistency even as green card categories face increased scrutiny.
Filing Fees to Budget For
When preparing to file an EB-1A or EB-2 NIW petition, applicants should budget for the full range of USCIS fees.
The base Form I-140 filing fee is currently $715. In addition, self-petitioners must pay the Asylum Program Fee, which is $600 for most filers or $300 for individuals and small employers with 25 or fewer employees. This brings the standard self-petitioner filing cost to $1,015 or $1,315, depending on employer size.
Premium processing, which provides adjudication within 15 business days for EB-1A or 45 business days for EB-2 NIW, requires an additional fee of $2,965 for both EB-1A and EB-2 NIW as of March 1, 2026. All USCIS fees are subject to change; always verify the current amounts at uscis.gov before filing.
Strategic Recommendations
If you are considering an EB-1A or EB-2 NIW filing in 2026, the quality of your petition matters more than ever.
You can maximize your chances of success by Investing in thorough documentation that goes beyond checking boxes. For EB-1A, your evidence should ideally tell a cohesive story of sustained acclaim, not simply demonstrate that you meet the minimum criteria. For EB-2 NIW, your proposed endeavor should be specific, concrete, and demonstrably tied to measurable national benefit.
You may also wish to consider filing both EB-1A and EB-2 NIW petitions simultaneously if your credentials support it. EB-1A generally has higher approval rates, shorter backlogs, and current priority dates for most countries. However, the two petitions should present internally consistent narratives as USCIS officers may cross-reference filings and issue Requests for Evidence if they detect discrepancies.
Above all, do not delay. Filing now locks in your priority date, which is increasingly important as EB-2 retrogression deepens.
Ready to Discuss Your Case?
At Stelmakh & Associates, we maintain approval rates that are significantly higher than the national industry averages across the EB-1A, EB-2 NIW, and O-1 categories. We help clients maximize their chances of approval through strategic evidence development, and offering individualized attention we bring to every case. If you have questions about how these developments affect your immigration options, we are here to help.
Stelmakh & Associates
Phone: 206-605-0550
Email: info@stelmakhlaw.com
Website: www.stelmakhlaw.com
Schedule a consultation today to review your options and build a strategy that positions your case for success.
Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. Immigration law is complex and fact-specific. Every situation is unique, and the information here may not apply to your particular circumstances. All USCIS filing fees, premium processing fees, and supplemental fees (including the Asylum Program Fee) referenced in this article are subject to change without notice. Always verify current fee amounts on the official USCIS Fee Schedule before filing. For advice about your case, please consult with a qualified immigration attorney. This content complies with the Rules of Professional Conduct for Washington, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, as well as USCIS guidelines.